NCAA March Madness Sweet 16/ Elite 8 Predictions
What a crazy first weekend of college tournament hoops! We saw a number of upsets from Cinderellas, close games from dark horses, and dominate performances from favorites. With the 16 teams left in the field, only four teams will be left standing when the dust settles Sunday evening.
Here’s how the Midwest Region breaks down for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
Sweet 16
#1 North Carolina vs #5 Auburn
The Tar-heels are coming off of a pair of dominate wins against #16 seeded Iona in the first round and #9 Washington in the second round. Nassir Little has been a consistent offensive threat averaging 19.5 points while shooting over 70% from the field in the first two games of the tournament. Coby White has also been a factor offensively despite struggling against Iona with a 17-point performance against Washington. But when its all said and done, the Tar-heels will ride on the backs of their seniors. Luke Maye has been nothing for of spectacular averaging a double-double in points and rebounds for UNC, most notably his performance against Washington where he tallied 20 points and 14 rebounds. And Cam Johnson is their go-to scorer with all the offensive tools averaging 17 points in their first two games. Roy Williams has done a phenomenal job preparing UNC for the tournament, and it shows with a pair of double-digit wins against the MAAC Champions and the PAC-12 runner-ups.
The Tigers of Auburn are dark horses no more. Auburn barley survived against #12 seeded New Mexico State in opening matchup by only one point. With double-figure scoring contributions from guards Jared Harper, Chuma Okeke, J’von McCormick, and Bryce Brown, the Tigers survived by just a few hairs against the Aggies. The same story can’t be said against the #4 seeded Kansas as the Tigers ate the Jayhawks alive with a double-digit victory carried by a 25-point rack up from Bryce Brown and 18 points from Jared Harper. Auburn has caught fire at just the right time, winning 10 straight games heading into the Sweet 16. As arguably the hottest team left standing in college basketball, Bruce Pearl hopes to bring Auburn to its second Elite Eight appearance in school history.
In this matchup, I see North Carolina ending the hot streak of Auburn. North Carolina’s presence inside will be too much for Auburn to handle. Auburn does have a great set of perimeter offense from Harper, Brown, and McCormick manning the outside, but with no real threat in the paint, the Tar-heels will simply have their way inside. The perimeter play from Johnson and White should also matchup well for the Tar-heels against the guards of Auburn. Expect Luke Maye to dominate the glass and rebound like a mad men and for UNC to advance to the Elite Eight.
#2 Kentucky vs #3 Houston
The Wildcats of Kentucky are back in the Sweet 16 for the fifth time in the last six seasons. John Calipari is just expanding his excellence as one of the greatest coaches in college basketball history. Kentucky absolutely steamrolled #15 seeded Abilene Christian by 35 points, and took care of business against #7 seeded Wofford. Kentucky is one of the most balanced teams left in the tournament. The wildcats have perimeter offense from Tyler Herro, Jermari Baker, and Keldon Johnson manning the wings as athletic sharpshooters, along with a bruising inside presence from Reid Travis and EJ Montgomery. Not to mention Ashton Hagans doing a phenomenal job setting the tempo for the Kentucky offense and the game in general. A solid win against the Southern Conference champions has put the whole country on notice that Kentucky is looking to win it all this year.
The H-Town Cougars have made to the Sweet 16 for the first time since they had Hall-of-Fame center Hakeem Olajuwon on their team back in 1984. A historical appearance did not come on accident however. After coming short against Cincinnati in the AAC championship, Houston have absolutely annihilated whoever has gotten in their way defeating #14 seeded Georgia State and #11 seeded Ohio State by 15 points or more. Led by offensive dynamo Corey Davis who is averaging 23.5 points in their first two games and help from Fabian White, the Cougars are ready for a cat fight with the wildcats.
Both teams evenly matched with perimeter play being a strong suit for both teams. Expect a high scoring game and a game that can very well come down to who has the ball last. Houston’s depth in the front court will give the Cougars an advantage on the glass, but the blue chip talent that Kentucky has on the perimeter can prove to be too much for Houston’s Corey Davis to keep up with offensively. Although the game can very well go down to the wire, I believe Kentucky has the edge for two reasons. First, John Calipari will be coaching in his eight Sweet 16 game as the coach of Kentucky alone, while Kelvin Sampson will be coaching in his first Sweet 16 game as the Houston coach and only his third Sweet 16 game overall. Coaching will prove to be a difference maker as the game unfolds. Secondly, will PJ Washington be active and ready to play this weekend of the tournament. Kentucky would love to add Washington’s perimeter shooting, experience, and veteran leadership to their team. An addition like that can very well be the kick Kentucky needs to run the tables later in the tournament.
Elite Eight
#1 North Carolina vs #2 Kentucky
Its Williams vs Calipari for the seventh time since Calipari was hired as the Kentucky head coach. A match up always worth price of admission, both North Carolina and Kentucky are both more than capable of making it to the Final Four. A Final Four appearance would mean either a third appearance in four seasons for Roy Williams, or John Calipari’s third appearance in five seasons.
In terms of matchups, the interior will be dominated by North Carolina. Luke Maye has proven himself as one of the best big men in the country with his nose for the loose ball and sheer determination to grab 50/50 balls despite being short for a big men. Reid Travis and EJ Montgomery best get a good night sleep before waking up to a hungry Luke Maye. To go along with a hot Nassir Little who can play both inside and out, the Tar-heels front court are capable of using their athleticism and strength to blow open a game. Perimeter play will interesting to watch throughout the course of the game. Coby White and Cam Johnson will have their hands full dealing with Keldon Johnson, Ashton Hagans and Tyler Herro who can all catch fire in an instance. But again, the X-factor of the matchup will be the availability and capability of senior PJ Washington. Washington has come up big for the Wildcats all season shooting a career high from three-point range. If Washington picks up where he left off prior to his injury, the Wildcats will survive by the skin of their teeth. If not, I see North Carolina punching their ticket to Minnesota as one of the Final Four.